Black Friday & Cyber Monday Spending, Trends, Numbers, & Statistics Predictions For 2017

Black Friday and Cyber Monday Spending Trends Numbers Statistics Predictions for 2017

While the so-called “Christmas creep” means that holiday sales are starting earlier than ever, Black Friday is in no danger of losing any real ground. Sure, Black November, Thanksgiving, pre-Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Cyber Week have eaten into the total spending on Black Friday a bit, but the day is evolving — and that’s good news for everyone.

In 2016, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday all set records for online sales. The shift to online buying during the holidays is going to continue for 2017, and that’s more good news. While a few select items are still in-store only, it is easier than ever to complete all of your shopping online during Thanksgiving weekend and not miss out on anything. Additionally, mobile shopping has been increasing rapidly in recent years, and that trend will also continue.

Online-Only Black Friday & Thanksgiving Spending Projections

Online-Only Black Friday and Thanksgiving 2017 Spending Predictions

Online Black Friday Spending:

Last year, we predicted there would be $3.08 billion in online sales on Black Friday. Had that prediction been accurate, it would have been an increase of 13.27 percent from the $2.72 billion spent online in 2015. The figure turned out to be $3.34 billion in spending, which was an increase of 21.6 percent. As the numbers show, more people are buying online on Black Friday than ever before. It was also the first time that online sales on Black Friday eclipsed the $3 billion figure. For 2017, expect $3.52 billion in online sales, which is an increase of 5.39 percent.

Online Thanksgiving Spending:

While spending on Thanksgiving is increasing at a rapid pace, it remains pretty far behind Black Friday when it comes to popularity. Last year, we predicted $2.07 billion in online sales on Thanksgiving, which would have been an increase of 19.77 percent from the $1.73 billion spent online in 2015. The figure turned out to be $1.93 billion, which is still strong growth. For 2017, expect $2.05 billion in online sales, which is an increase of 6.22 percent.

Combined Online Spending:

In 2016, shoppers spent a combined total of $5.27 billion online on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, which was a new record. For 2017, expect a combined $5.57 billion to be spent, which is an increase of 5.70 percent.

Top Three Online Stores By Spending:

Last year, we predicted that Amazon, Walmart, and eBay would be the most popular online stores on Black Friday and Thanksgiving. While Amazon and Walmart both finished in the top three, eBay actually regressed from its strong position in previous years. For 2017, expect Amazon and Walmart to dominate online sales. While the No. 3 spot is still up for grabs between Best Buy and Target, expect Target to edge them out.

Mobile Only Spending Totals:

While using a desktop computer is still a more hassle-free way to shop, mobile devices — including smartphones and tablets — are the preferred method for many shoppers on Black Friday. For one, they offer convenience that traditional desktops and laptops do not. Additionally, mobile websites are drastically improving. It is easier than ever to make a purchase at your favorite store’s website using your smartphone, whether it be directly on their site or via an app.

On Black Friday, expect $1.4 billion in sales using mobile devices, which would be an increase of $200 million from the $1.2 billion spent last year. On Thanksgiving, expect $850 million in sales using mobile devices, which would be an increase of $79 million from the $771 million spent last year.

Online spending and sales data from 2016 came from Adobe.

 

Average Spending Projections

Average Spending Projections Thanksgiving Weekend 2017

Black November’s expansion means that shoppers are spreading out their buying over more days, but Thanksgiving weekend remains the most popular time of the month to get a deal. In 2015, shoppers spent an average of $299.60 during the weekend. In 2016, shoppers spent an average of $289.19. For 2017, expect shoppers to average $295.33 for the weekend.

The National Retail Federation states that over a third of shoppers managed to only purchase items that were on sale. That percentage is likely going to remain at around 33 percent for 2017. Many people complete the bulk of their holiday shopping during Thanksgiving weekend, and it is impossible to get every single item on sale.

 

Total Shopper Projections

Total Shopper Projections Thanksgiving Weekend 2017

According to the National Retail Federation, 151 million people shopped during Thanksgiving weekend in 2015. In 2016, that number jumped to 154.4 million people. Expect that figure to increase to around 156 million for 2017. More people are taking part in Thanksgiving weekend shopping, and the figure should see a slow and steady increase every single year.

According to ShopperTrak, foot traffic to traditional brick-and-mortar stores during Thanksgiving weekend was down 1 percent last year. The most interesting part about the statistic is that foot traffic on Black Friday was largely unchanged in 2016 compared to 2015, but foot traffic on Thanksgiving Day was down. This can partially be explained by the fact that more deals are now available online, which takes away some of the importance of in-person shopping on Thanksgiving. Going out on Black Friday is a tradition for families, which means foot traffic should not change too much in 2017.

 

Cyber Monday Spending & Trends Projections

Despite the fact that numerous retail experts have been predicting Cyber Monday’s demise in recent years, it is only growing stronger. Here were the total sales and strictly mobile sales from previous years and a projection for 2017.

Spending And Sales Cyber Monday 2017 Predictions

Total Cyber Monday Spending:

As it seems to do every single year, Cyber Monday set a record last year for total online sales in a single day. Shoppers spent $3.45 billion in 2016, which was $380 million more than in 2015. While the $3.45 billion figure is impressive, it really did not beat Black Friday’s $3.34 billion online total by that much. Regardless, Cyber Monday is as popular than ever, and you should expect at least $3.81 billion in sales for 2017. It is important to remember that many Cyber Monday deals actually go live on Saturday and Sunday, which means the $3.45 billion figure from last year is probably a bit understated when taking Cyber Monday as a whole.

Mobile Only Cyber Monday Spending:

Like on Black Friday and Thanksgiving, mobile sales ate up a large percentage of spending on Cyber Monday. Shoppers spent $1.07 billion on mobile in 2016, which was $271 million more than in 2015. This trend will continue, and mobile sales should be around $1.24 billion. Strangely enough, Black Friday is still expected to do more in mobile sales despite having less overall online spending.

Online spending and sales data from 2016 came from Adobe. 2015 data also came from Adobe.

Offline Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping Data is No Longer Available

While traditional brick-and-mortar spending data is usually widely available, many organizations stopped tracking it last year. A representative from ShopperTrak informed BestBlackFriday.com that they did not produce offline sales figures for Thanksgiving and Black Friday in 2016 and will not be doing it in 2017. Without concrete data from 2016, we are unable to make accurate 2017 predictions for offline spending.

Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday Are Bigger Than The Numbers Say

Even with huge spending totals being reported for all three days, they are still likely being shortchanged. As previously mentioned, many Thanksgiving sales actually begin on Wednesday. Some events even begin as early as Monday. Thanksgiving sales are also technically the start of a store’s official Black Friday sale, so many of those orders are coming days earlier. Cyber Monday begins well before Monday for many retailers, and the deals usually last throughout the entire week.


 
More 2017 Black Friday Predictions

Main Black Friday 2017 Predictions Contents Page
Ad Scan Leak Dates
Store Rankings, Average Discount, and Important Dates/Times
– Overall Spending, Sales, and Growth
HDTVs and 4K TVs
Video Games (PS4, Xbox One, Switch)
Smartphones (iPhone X & 8 and Galaxy S8)
Laptops and MacBooks
Tablets and iPads
Toys and Games
Clothing & Apparel


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